By Ashton Cox
After another blistering start to the 2024/25 Premier League season, Cole Palmer’s recent drop in form has coincided with the Blues slipping down the order.
The Chelsea star is now without a goal contribution in 10 games across all competitions.
What factors have contributed towards this?
- Maresca’s style of play
- Fatigue
- Nicolas Jackson’s injury
Maresca’s Management
Under Chelsea’s ‘normal’ attacking speed this season that has led to 296 shots, the Londoners have 0.12 xG per shot.
This is a decrease from Mauricio Pochettino’s attacking threat last year, which led to 0.15 xG per shot – showing that the Blues were more likely to put the ball in the back of the net.
Throughout open play, Pochettino’s side racked up a total xG of 62.87 for the 2023/24 season, which conquers the 46.18 xG that Chelsea currently has – and are unlikely to catch last season’s total despite having nine games remaining.
Whilst the Italian certainly has a more assured defence with 30.73 xG against them so far which is likely to better the Argentinian’s xG against of 49.27 come the end of the season, it’s clear to see that Maresca’s style of play offers less attacking impetus than Pochettino’s did.
The English midfielder’s form has followed this trend; In 33 league matches last season, Palmer bagged 22 goals and 11 assists which has now decreased significantly to 14 goals and six assists in 28 matches this campaign.
Some fans may claim that Palmer’s early goals and assists tally this time out – that saw him have 18 goals and assists by Boxing Day – that had continued where he left off last season is proof that Maresca’s style has had little effect on the player.
However, with the second half of the season underway and Maresca’s tactics further taking a grip within the squad, the midfielder’s last goal contribution dates to the 14th January against Bournemouth.
The stats prove that since the match against the Cherries, Chelsea average an xG of 1.78 per match in comparison to an average of 2.04 across the 21 games this season prior to then – showing Maresca’s tactics are negatively impacting the whole attack which has dragged Palmer down.
Fatigue
The total of matches per season has become a huge concern within the whole football community and is believed to be the main contributor for the record number of injuries.
For example, the Blues suffered a total of 54 injuries last campaign and the league had an increase of 11% compared to the season before, a huge inflation in a very short time span.
Palmer played in 48 games across all competitions last season and is currently at 33 for this campaign, which may not seem like a big issue as the number of matches for him hasn’t increased this year.
However, with the European Championships last summer that stopped him from getting more than three weeks’ recovery time plus the addition of European midweek fixtures this season, the congestion looks to have taken its toll.
Furthermore, last season the Premier League pencilled in a week off to its schedule to aid mid-season recovery, with teams such as Arsenal jetting off to Dubai for warm-weather training.
However, likely due to the late start to the league this season because of the Euros, no such mid-season break was scheduled for this year that would have given players such as Palmer a much-needed chance to recuperate.
Nicolas Jackson’s injury
The Senegalese striker injured his hamstring against West Ham United on 3rd February and will be out of action until after the international break.
Also in that match, Marc Guiu picked up an injury that could force him to miss the rest of the season, meaning Palmer has been missing a strike partner in attack.
Of his 36 Premier League goals, Nicolas Jackson is the top assister with seven assists for him.
The same can be said for Nicolas Jackson’s 23 goals, which sees Palmer as the main assister with five set-ups.
However, some will point out that the Englishman’s form dipped even before Jackson was injured.
Whilst this is true, only two games against Manchester City and Wolves were played in the time between Palmer’s last goal involvement and Jackson’s injury.
Despite Christopher Nkunku having shared the pitch on 34 occasions with Palmer, most of this was off the bench having started just eight league matches all season and spending only 862 minutes on the pitch.
This means the Frenchman averages 35.92 minutes of football per Premier League appearance in 2024/25.
As such, the pair haven’t been able to find a connection anywhere near to what Palmer had with the Senegalese international.
Verdict
While all three factors play an important role, I think Maresca’s management has had the greatest impact on the player.
Fatigue has been important, however the 12-day break the Blues got in early March as a result of being knocked out of the FA Cup early had no impact on Palmer’s fortunes in the following matches.
As for a lack of strike-partner, there should be enough quality within the likes of Pedro Neto, Jadon Sancho and Christopher Nkunku to fill the void of Jackson’s assists yet none of them have been able to help the midfielder crack the code.
As for the style of play, it is clear to see that the attacking stats overall have suffered this year, which Palmer is just one cog in that machine that ultimately makes Maresca most responsible.